The last time North-Korea was whipping they needed money. Their population was starving and they needed the money and international help to get the food. The way they went about it? They menaced to invade South-Korea and all that stuff. They cried so lound doing the bacon slice on the floor like a child that the International community bought peace and allowed the help to North-Korea.
What does happen when you reward a child for bad behavior? That's it! He does it again.
What is it this time? Starving again? Or the young new impetuous ruler wants to show the world who can piss the farther? He is young, and when you're young you think you're invincible and strong and that you know it all. May be he wants to play with his toys?
But what if some or most of the North-Korean army's generals think the same? What if they fell into a dangerous group-think and they actually think they do have a chance?
What is group-think? Well go to Wikipedia for the formal definition. I'll explain it to you with a simple example. Everyone lived this kind of situation when we were in high-school. Do you remember this guy or this girl that everybody were making fun of? Most of you I guess, just like me, thought once why do we do this to this person? For what reason? Was it justified? But nobody did or said anything. We just went by either doing nothing or joining the group. That is group-think.
Why do we do that? The one who breaks the group-think is ostracized from the group. Therefore there is more pain and negative outcome in re-establishing facts or justice than saying nothing. Therefore nobody does anything.
So I am sure that, after what? 40 years of military parades, military tests and aggressive sporadic attacks against South-Korea, without any meaningful retaliation, the North-Koreans may thing that they are as strong as they think they are. And now they are waiting for the faintest reason to officially declare war. They are eating their own propaganda.
Why don't they just attack unilaterally? China. Their allied China wouldn't accept it. But if they act as if they defend themselves. Then may be China will just stand aside and let North-Korea have its dance. Just like all the world nations stood aside from America went it attacked Irak after the 9-11 events. America felt it was in its right to defend itself and nobody opposed.
We shall see I guess on April 15th.
April 15th is the National feast for North-Korea and they always go out their way to celebrate grandiosely on that day.
They may start the war on that significant date.
