Saturday, December 31, 2011

Link of the week

This week a very interesting link.

You must have, like me, sometimes overlooked a battle and said to yourself that if it were you, you would have done things different and of course win the battle. But when you are really in the sandals of the general that is an entire new ball game.

This video is good for that. It shows four normal guys put in the role of generals and they must fight one of determinant Alexander the Great's battle. Three things gets out of this experiment:

  1. The importance of communication. Generals must communicate with their Lieutenants. In the middle of chaos even more. Even if you are just stating the fact that anybody can see. Communicate!
  2. Once you adopt a strategy and tactics. Don't second guess! Fight it to the end. You may win or you may lose. But if you change tactics during the fight, you WILL lose.
  3. The importance of troop’s morale. Alexander fought in first wave. While Darius flees the battle field. As a result the Macedonians fought harshly while massive amount of Darius troops ran for their lives abandoning the combat field. This played an important part in Alexander victory even when is was outnumbered 3 to 1 for the battle.

Enjoy this video.

Time commander: Battle of Gaugamela - Part 1

Time commander: Battle of Gaugamela - Part 2

Time commander: Battle of Gaugamela - Part 3

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

I've got you labelled




Clothes may make the man, but it is the label that reallu counts.

Designers of fancy apparel would like their customers to believe that wearing their creations lends an air of wealth, sophistication and high status. And it does- but not, perhaps, for the reasons those designers might like to believe, namely their inherent creative genius. A new piece of research confirms what many, not least in the marketing departments of fashion houses, will long have suspected: that it is not the design itself that counts, but the label.

Rob Nelissen and Marijn Meijers of Tilburg University in the Netherlands examined people's reactions to experimental stooges who were wearing clothes made by Lacoste and Tommy Hilfiger, two well-known brands that sells what they are pleased to refer as designer clothing. As the two researchers show in a paper about the to be published in Evolution and Human Behavior, such clothes do bring the benefits promised: co-operation from others, job recommendations and even the ability to collect more money when soliciting for charity. But they work only when the origin of the clothes in question is obvious.

In the first experiment, volunteers were shown pictures of a man wearing a polo shirt. The polo was digitally altered to include no log, a designer logo (Lacoste or Hilfiger) or a logo generally regarded as non-luxury, Slazenger. When the designer logo appeared, the man in the picture was rated as of higher status (3.5 for Lacoste and 3.47 for Hilfiger, on a five point scale, compared with 2.91 for no logo and 2,84 for Slazenger), and wealthier (3.4 and 3.94 versus 2.78 and 2.8, respectively).

To see if this perception had an effect on actual behaviour, the researchers did a number of other experiments. For instance, one of their female assistant asked people in a shopping mall to stop and answer survey questions. One day she wore a sweather with a designer logo; the next, an identical sweater with no logo. Some 52% of people agreed to take the survey when faced with Tommy Hilfiger label, compared with only 13% who saw no logo.

In another experiment, volunteers watched one of two videos of the same man being interviewed for a job. In one, his shirt had a logo; in the other, it did not. The logo led observers to rate the man as more suitable for the job, and even earned him 9% higher salary recommendation.

Charitable impulses were affected, too. When two of the team's women went collecting for charity on four consecutive evenings, switching between designer and non-designer shirts, they found that wearing shirts with logos brought in nearly twice as much - an average per answered door of 34 euro cents (48 American ones) compared with 19 euro cents when logoless. It seems, then, that labels count. The question is, why?

The answer, Dr Nelissen and Dr Meijers suspect, is the same as why the peacock with the best tail gets all the girls. People react to designer labels as signals of underlying quality. Only the best can afford them. To test that idea, they checked how people responded to a logo they knew had cost the wearer nothing. To do this, they asked their volunteers to play social-dilemma game, in which both sides can benefit from co-operating, but only at the risk of being taken adbantage of.

Each volunteer was given 2$ in 10 cent coins and told he (or she) could transfer as much as desired to an unseen partner, and that any amount transferred would be doubled. If both partners transferred all of their money, each would end up with 4$. But because there was no garantee that the unseen partner would give back any money at all, players tended to hedge their bets, and transfer only some money.

When shown a picture of their purported partner wearing a designer shirt, volunteers transferred 36% more than when the same person was shown with no logo (95 cents, as opposed to 70 cents). But when told that the partner was wearing a shirt given by the experimenters, the logo had no effect on transfers. The shirt no longer represented an honest signal.

This study confirms a wider phenomenon. A work of art's value, for example, can change radically, depending on who is believed to have created it, even though the artwork itself is unchanged. And people will willingly buy counterfeit goods, knowing they are knock-offs, if they bear the right label. What is interesting is that the label is so persuasive. In the case of the peacock, the tail works precisely because it cannot be faked. An unhealthy bird's feathers will never sparkle. But humans often fail to see behond the superficial. For humans, then, the status-assessment mechanism is going wrong.

Presumably what is happening is that a mechanism which evolved to assess biology cannot easily cope with artefacts. If the only thing you have to assess is the quality of a tail, evolution will tend to make you quite good at it. Artefacts, though, are so variable that mental shortcuts are likely to be involved. If everyone agrees something has high status, then it does. But that agreement often transfers the status from the thing to the label. Maybe a further million years or so of evolution will eliminate this failing. In the meantime, marketers can open another bottle of champagne.

... and so can you my fellow strategists. For you can use this at your advantage.

Source: The Economist.

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Link of the week



This week only one link. But a very inspiring one. It is not long and I strongly suggest everyone to read it.


You want to atchieve your dreams? Get dealy.


And read this.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Peace of wisdon: The good the bad and the Ugly


"See in this world there is two kinds of people my friend. Those with loaded guns. And those who dig...
... You dig."


Friday, November 18, 2011

Stop being a fuckin joker!

I just read a thread from one of my favorite Blog: SebastianMarshall.com: Strategy, Philosophy, Self-Discipline, Science. Victory.


There come times that you need a slap in the face and a kick in the butt. This post was one for me.

One of the advantage of being kicked in the butt is that it propels you forward. This is a post that I will read again and again. See. I've been a fuckin joker for several years. And now it is time I put my foot on the floor and start atchieving.

It is about time that I unleash myself on to the world.

I will eather find a way or make one. Let the forces of hell be with me!

What stroke me most on the post is when he is asking: "...you're all highly highly skilled, top 1% at your craft. You're all highly intelligent, top 1% of the population. You've all got excellent social skills, top 1% communication skills. And yet, you're middle class. Have you reflected on that? You're the top 1% IN EVERY CATEGORY THAT MATTERS, and yet, you're relatively poor."

This is a slap in the face to remember. Not just a "yes, yes he is so right" and then move back to incipid activities.

Like Hannibal I shall either find a way or make one. And by doing so I will appear as the one who has the Forces of hell on my side.
Thanks Sebastian.

Today shall mark the death of the Joker.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Cry havoc! And let slip the math of war


Warfare seems to obey mathematical rules. Whether soldiers can make use of that fact remains to be seen.

In 1948 Lewis Fry Richardson, a British scientist, published what was probably the first rigorous analysis of the statistics of war. Richardson ahd spent seven years gathering data on the wars waged in the century or so prior to his study. There were almost 300 of them. The list runs from conflicts that claimed a thousand or so lives to the devastation of the two world wars. But when he plotted his results, he found that these diverse events fell into a regular pattern. It wasas if the chaos of war seemed to comply with some hitherto unknown law of nature.

At first glance the pattern seems obsious. Richardson found that wars with low death tolls far outnumber high-fatality conflicts. But that obvious observation conceals a precise mathematical description of the link betweenthe severity and the frequency of conflicts to follow a smooth curve known as a power law. One consequence is that extreme events such as the world wars do not appear to be anomalies. They are simply what should be expected to occur occasionnally, given the frequencywith which conflicts take place.

The results have fascinated mathematicians and military strategists ever since. They have also been replicated many times. But they have not much impact on the conduct of actual wars. As a result, there is a certain "so what" quality to Richardson's results. It is one thing to show that a pattern exists, another to do something useful with it.

In a paper currently under review at Science, however, Neil Johnson of the university of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, and his colleagues hint at what that something useful might be. Dr Johnson's team is one of several groups who, in previous papers, have shown that Richardson's power law also applies to attacks by terrorists and insurgents. They and others have broadened Richardson's scope of inquiry to include the timing of attack, as well as the severity. This prepared the ground for the new paper, which outlines a method for forecasting the evolution of conflicts.

Progress, of a sort

Dr Johnson's proposal rests on a pattern he and his team found in data on insurgent attacks against American forces in Afghanistan and Iraq. After the initial attacks in a given province, subsequent fatal incidents become more and more frequent. The intriguing points is that it is possible, using a formula Dr Johnson has derived, to predict the details of this pattern from the interval between the first two attacks.

The formula in question (Tn=T1n-b) is one of a familiar type, known as aprogress curve, that describes how productivity improves in a range of human activities from manufacturing to cancer surgery. Tn is the number of days between the nth attack and its successor. (T1 is therefore the number of days between the first and the second attacks.) The other element of the equation, b, turns out to be directly related to T1. It is calculated from the relationship between the logarithms of the attack number, n, and the attack interval, Tn. The upshot is that knowing T1 should be enough to predict the future course of a local insurgency. Conversely, changing b would change both T1 and Tn, and thus change that future course.

Though the fit between the data and the prediction is not perfect (an example is illustrated at the beginnng of this post), the match is close enough that Dr Johnson thinks he is onto something. Progress curves are a consequence of people adapting to circumstances and learning to do things better. And warfare is just as capable of productivity improvements as any other activity.

The twist in warfare is that two antagonistic groups of people are doing the adapting. Borrowing a term used by evolutionary biologists (who, in turn, stole it from Lewis Carroll's book, "Through the Looking-Glass"), Dr Johnson likens what is going on to the mad dash made by Alice and the Red Queen, after which they find themselves exactly where they started.

Personal note: I shall explain how to defeat the Red Queen effect in another post.

In biology, the Red Queen hypothesis is that predators and prey (or, more often, parasites and hosts) are in a constant competition that leads to stasis,a s each adaptation by one is countered by an adaptation by the other. In the case of Dr. Johnson is examining the co-evoluation is between the insurgents and the occupiers, each constantly adjusting to each other's tactics. The data come from 23 different provinces, each of which is, in effect, a separate theatre of war. In each case, the gap between fatal attacks shrinks, more or less according to Dr. Johnson's model. Eventually, an equilibrium is reached, and the intervals become fairly regular.

The mathematics do not reveal anything about what the adaptations made by each side actually are, behond the obvious observation that practice makes perfect. Nor do they illuminate what the value of b variesso much from place to place. Dr. Johnson has already ruled out geography, density of displaced people, the identity of local warlords and even poppy production. If he does find the crucial link, though, military strategists will be all over him. But then such knowledge might perhaps be countered by the otherside, in yet another lap of the Red Queen race.

Source: The Economist

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Links of the week

Julius Ceasar - Cretical moments
Excellent documentary by the BBC. I just love Ceasar. When it comes to strategy. He is one of my all time favorite.

See how Islam came to be. And this is one of the culture I am least familiar with. It is good to see where they come from. It gives ideas of where they are heading to.