Beware of your alliances

The second world war witnessed the most unlikely alliance of all modern time.

Against Nazi Germany, an alliance was made between England, United-States that didn't want to get involved.  And communist Russia with its two other capitalists allies.

The necessity of the time pushed that alliance.  But is necessity all?

What if you have an ally that you can barely control?  One that can unleash forces againsts your opponents that seams great in the beginning.  But can backfire on you afterward?

The UK was happy to ally with the United-States.  But at the end of the war it became clear that the USA were not to leave the European affairs.  And the days of the British Dominion would be numbered.  What seamed like a good idea for Britain became quite a puzzle after the war.  As per the Soviet Union.  No one trusted them anyway.  Nor did USSR trust its "western" allies either.

So the question remain.  Is it better do ally with some mighty forces knowing you will have to deal with it afterward.  Or try to maintain that country out of the way while you fight against your opponent?

Trying the later deploys some energies that would better serve the war.  But not getting this ally on board you risk the chance for that ally to join the other side.

If you think you cannot overcome your opponent all by yourself, you might want to ally with the might force, dealing with its problem later while solving the current problem of your present conflict against your opponent.

But day one, you must prepare a plan to tame, calm or overcome your ally in the future.  Or worst.  Prevent it from plainly turn against you, since it had beaten you current opponent.

In life it is the same thing.  Ether you ally with people or organization.  You must think of the aftermath.  And what are the possible consequences.

Praise the ally.  Praise its alliance.  But never take it for granted.  And plan!  Plan for the possible outcomes in the future.  Even the ones you might think... improbable at present...

... I live to tell. 

Do you realy think the players have a chance?

Its one cocky thing a player.  They are the product.  So they think, I guess, that everything is due to them.  That since they are the product, the owner is nothing without them.  "Lets just take more than 50% of the owner's money as a business model and if the owners doesn't like it.  Eat it!"

Well... do you really think that any one who starts a business.  Just what ever that is, will be willing to take all the risk and then share more than half his revenue with his employees?

Get real people.  Shall I remind you that the NHL is not on strike?  Its on lock out.  This means that its the owners that closed the doors.

And who's bringing the offers on the table these days?  Yes.  The players. 

Why?  Well guess who needs his pay check?

Most owners doesn't just have the NHL team as a revenue.  Most of them held more than one company and are making money coming from different streams.  Does this sound familiar?   What am I shouting one should do all the time?  Yes... Multiple streams of revenues.  So you don't get stuck with only one when it dries out.

So who do you thing has the better strategy here?  The players that are nothing without the fans and the money they bring?  Or the owners who makes money from other businesses?  To put it simple.  On the owner's side.  The millions they are not making so far are just changing column.  Its goes from "benefits before tax & general admin" column to "operation loss" column.  And guess what?  Most get a tax deduction from what goes into the "operation loss" column. So.... bring it on!

So the owner's strategy is very simple.  Just sit tight, cross your arms, and wait.  They will have them in the long run.  It can be long because its millionaires against billionaires.  So the money takes a little more time to dry out than it takes for me and you.  But its coming.  Sooner or later.

Praise for education

I'm just out of my exam.

This is the one that gives me a license to do part of the work I am studying for if I pass.

The exam did not go well.  But I always say that so...

I calculated my mark to be around 66% at best.  We'll see.

Anyway.  What I wanted to comment about it is the actual performance of writing the exam.  I was in such intense focus during the exam. I came aware of it at one point.  And I said to myself.  Even if you pass or not.  You should continue on studying for the remaining of your life.

Why?

Because it is so good for the mind.  You force it to learn something then focus on vomiting all you know in and exam afterward.  It`s like weight training for the brain.  And since we loose millions of neurons every day.  I am sure that, if someone use his/her brain a lot to learn new stuff,  the rate of decay must be much slower.  I have no proof of that but logically...

I see so much people every day engaged in small talk while sucking on their cigarettes in their break at the office.  I am sure that they could use their time more... efficiently.  And healthily.  This is a judgement from my part I know.  Who am I to judge their actions.  But never the less I strongly believe that learning something new year after year all along your life is good for your health. 

Studying year after year... slowly but surely.  The Japanese have a word for that.  Kaizen. This means "step by step" or "little by little".  In other word they mean that, by improving one small bit at a time,  in the long run, the change will be tremendous. 

You'll get better off most people both on knowledge and on brain health on average.  And I don't even go on telling what it can do for you and your career if you appear to care for one.  This is just one other manifestation of getting an edge which, in strategy, is so important...

... Just a thought.

Evidence that Apple is doomed?

The king is dead!  God save the King?

We should say "God save his kingdom". 

There are numerous examples in history that an empire did not prevail the death of its emperor.  The empire of Alexander the Great is one of the most notorious.

Why?

Vision!

There is a lot of technocrats in this world.  But there is very little people with vision.  People that are able to foresee where the future lies.  Alexander the Great had a vision.  Just what ever it was will be forever lost in his mind.  The idea of a whole human unification into one great empire?  Or just mere personal greed?  We shall never know for sure.  But he had a vision that is for sure.  Just before he died, on his death bed, he left his empire "to the ablest".  What did he means by that?  No one know for sure.  The strongest?  The ablest in military art?  Or perhaps the one that shall have the broader vision?

Apple is an empire that lost its leader.  Have you seen Apple's advertizing lately?  They are selling colors!  That's it!  The plain good old ipone with some technological improvement I'll grant them that. The same good old iPad, same good old iPod.  And the iStore that goes with it.  But what else?  The only things I see in the advertizing is that the products are sold in multiple colors now.

Woohoo!  What an improvement.

Those people are good at what they are doing.  They are good marketing people.  Good at keeping books.  Good at managing a business.  They are good technocrats. But they are no visionaries.

The king is dead.  The soul of the kingdom is dead with him.  Now they carry on a borrowed time.  And without a genuine Jobs like idea to propel it further.  It is just a question of time before in crumble.

And history repeats itself.  When they first fired Jobs, the company went to hell.  Why?  They thought they were selling technology.  And they thought they could sell it on their own.  Without the help of the king.  They were wrong.  They were selling a vision.  A way of life with technology.  They had to call him back to save the company.  And he did. But now its going to be a little harder to bring him back.

The flaw is in the passing of command.  Most kings, emperors, CEOs, are getting busy in conquering the world.  They have few time, if any, to consolidate and master a plan to pass the soul to the next generation.  To pass the grand thought, the grand idea.  Then the empire falls with the death of its ruler.

I shall make another post on how to gather vision and pass it along.

But for Apple.  I see it doomed.  It is just a question of time.  If nothing is done to brings it back as the leader of thought, leader of technological vision it was.  And just as the fall of the Roman Empire.  The place left with be taken by several regional kingdoms.  Or several technological competitors and start-ups as we shall say in our modern times.  Until one day. Another Cesar will rise.  Another Alexander the Great.  Another Jobs or Gates.  And that person, with his vision, shall bring our world once again to the next level.

And we shall call him or her: a "genius".  Just as we did with Jobs.

Some further proof of the imminent fall of Apple:

In the elevator to hell its... going down!