Sunday, February 6, 2011

Tim Sykes Method - Update

I shorted Zane at 1.55$ per share. I covered my position at 1.36$. This makes 114$ profit (I bought 600 shares).

I shorted BLDP at 2.09 per share. I still hold the position. lets see were it leads.

So far so good with this system. The main problem is that I cannot watch the market movement to the tick. I work a day job and have to check the good news, or the mess, at the end of the day. One the other side this may be good. Because while I don't watch the market to the tick, I don't get emotional therefore I don't sell when its not the time to. The flip side is also true. The day that I will need to sell on the spot, I won't be there to react. This will reality will need to be addressed in my system.


Friday, February 4, 2011

Moubarak move - Machiavelli would have approved

Well my friends, I don't know for you but each time I turn on my TV set at night to watch the news in Egypt I get a new lesson in strategy.

What started it all in Egypt? The people saw what the population did in Tunisia and they said to themselves:"Now wait! If they can do it, we can do it too!" And the turmoil began. At first it was genuine people tired and frustrated against the regime. They were manifesting in peace. But they wanted to pass their point across.

What did Moubarak do? He addressed the nation. Stating that he was dissolving the government and that there were to be elections to better address the people's demands. It didn't work. The people remained in the street.

So next thing he deployed the army in order to "secure the streets and protect the population" of course. It didn't do.

He dissolved the government. So now he control the three main democratic powers: executive, legislature and the judiciary. We all know that to ensure a democracy, you have to separate the powers. OK what's next? Ah yes! The press. The press is known to be the "fourth power" with its power to influence. So previously this week, he cut the Al Jazeera feed in Egypt. Al Jazeera is the muslim version of CNN.

Ok lets see on the cross list:

legislature: checked

executive: checked

judiciary: checked

the press: partial check. We need to address the international press in order to suppress the international opinion.

army: still in control.

Ok lets look in the streets: what? They're still there?!

Now comes the cherry on the sundae. The master peace that Machiavelli would have been excited about. Lets organize a counter insurrection party. Those people will get down in the streets. And they are precisely instructed to get violent and attack both insurrectionists and the international press. And they should shout slogans in favor of Moubarak. Now such a party shouldn't be difficult to put together. In a country which has its economy at a total halt, giving a "salary" to the counter insurrectionists will be appealing to some people.

And look at what is happening from the last two days. Violence. Insurrectionists getting attacked, and international press fleeing home because they are afraid for their security. This last move may just be the kind of move that will ensure Moubarak to prevail.

I am not endorsing Moubaraks moves. I sincerely wish more democracy, peace and jobs to the Egyptian people. Since I run a strategic blog, I had to point out the strategic moves that are right before our eyes. Here and now. Live.

Tim Sykes Method - Update on my picks

Well lets see what is happening with my picks. I chose: SCON, ZANE and BLDP.

Lets start with SCON:

It played up around 3.40$ yesterday then retraced and closed at 3.12$ This is a potential short. I'll keep an eye on it today. Its shy but I think it has the potential to go down. The volume is still too high. It support the price. When it will be fading, it will be shorting time.

ZANE:
Now look at this! Dropped like a poh! I didn't even have time to get into the party. I missed the fun. Oh well, there will be another party coming soon. Don't worry.

BLDP:
Now look at this one. Just perfect! It started its retrace, the volume is fading. Looks like a short to me. I'll short this one at the opening of the market.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Tim Sykes Method - My picks

Ok lets get to business.

As one of my three main objectives at the beginning of the year I told that I want to make money. To do so I started to use two methods. Tim Sykes Method for pennystocking, and Turtle method for Forex. Lets focus on pennystocking for now.

On January 25th I picked two stocks using Sykes method. I picked NVGN and RNN. I shorted 500 shares of each. NVGN at 1.44$ and RNN at 1.52$. Yesterday February 2th, I covered both my positions on them. NVGN at 1.01$ and RNN at 1.45$. This makes me a profit (before trading fees) of 215$ for NVGN and 35$ for RNN, for a grand total of 250$ profit.

Here are the stocks on my watch list now:

SCON

ZANE


BLDP

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Borrowed power vs True power



Borrowed power or true power? Look at the actual case of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Those people believed, I guess, that they were there for ever. If you asked Kadafi of Lybia a few weeks ago, I would suspect that he would have been confident to stay in place. Try to probe him now. I'm sure that his convictions are a little more shaky. Even if his country remains in relative peace and harmony... so far.

I've been having this thought for a while now. And my introspection on the subject is not finished. What do Ben Ali, Mubarak and Kadafi have in common? They all stand (or standed) on borrowed power. As long as the people tolerate them, everything goes smoothly in the world. But don't be too exuberant. You better walk with your bottom cheeks tight. Because you never know when the people will have enough.

So what is true power then? It is not Kim Jong-Il. It is not Fidel Castro. Those are the same as the others. They are just pressing the people's balls a little harder. So what is it? What is true power? I think it's money. Look at the big shots in this world. I mean the real ones. The major league ones. Most of them you don't hear much about. But do you think that, because you don't hear about them, that they are not active? Far from it. They are just keeping it low profile. They get people elected. They get bills passed. They endure and prosper. For generations. And when there's a head to roll, its not theirs.

Its the same thing in enterprises and politics. Look at the CEOs. Look at presidents, senators and governors. Are they that powerful? Their heads can roll in a matter of minutes. And it did. They are just as good as the next election or the next profit report. Or until people get tired of them. But the major shareholders, the others playing behind the curtain or the people ... they remain.

So my take away from it all is don't mistake true power from borrowed power. You still want the CEO's job? Fine. But make sure that you do it for the right reasons: money, contacts, prestige. But not power. If you do, you're running after a shadow. Even popularity and prestige are false gods. It takes time to get and it can be removed from you before you know it. And you're left with nothing. Worst! People look at you as they look at their drop before flushing.

Once again look at the very rich. Ok they have the prestige of their wealth. But are they actively after popularity and prestige? No. They are after true power. And it seams that keeping a low profile about it is a good strategy.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Obituary - Peter Cundill

Investment manager helped shape industry.

The celebrated investor Peter Cundill has died, but his influence will continue to be felt in his contributions to financial world, to philanthropy and to the broader community.

He died in London where he lived for the past two decades, on Jan. 24. He was 72. There's always something to Do: The Peter Cundill Investment Approach (McGill Queen's Univesity Press), completed not long before his death, is set to be released on Feb. 26.

The Cundill International Prize in History, established by his foundation in 2008 at his alma mater; McGill University , remains the world's largest non-fiction historical literature prize. The 2010 winner was noted British historian and Oxford University professor Diarmaid MacCuloch, for A History of Christianity:The First Three Thousand Years. The prize was intended to encourage the writing of history for a general audience and, in explaining his affinity to history Cundill once said:"I'm an investment researcher of finance, and I think there's an analogy between the two disciplines - both study the past to understand the present and predict the future." As well, the Cundill Foundation will continue to support "a wide range of charities and educational and enterprise gifts to young people," according to a memorial notice that appeared in The Gazette and other publications.

Cundill was a graduate of Lower Canada College, where he played football and basketball. He earned a Bachelor of Commerce from McGill in 1960, became a chartered accountant and then went into the investment business; he worked in Montreal and Vancouver; where in the early 1970s he was president of AGF Vancouver Investment Management Ltd. and established his flagship fund, the Cundill Value Fund, in 1974 and his own firm three years later.

In his investment philosophy, Cundill was known as an advocate of American economist and investor Benjamin Graham's value approach, which generally involves buying securities whose shares appear undervalued. Proponents of value investing includes Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett; indeed, in 2007 Buffett observed that Cundill had the kind of credentials he was looking for in his search for his company's next chief investment officer.

In a column about Cundill's death, a personal finance columnist at the Toronto Star called him "a renowned value investor and mutual fund manager who helped shake the Canadian money management industry."

Roseman, who interviewed him in 1988 and again in 2003, described him as "lean and bald, with piercing blue eyes."

Cundill who liked to challenge himself physically, was a runner who completed 22 marathons. He was a voracious reader and he loved to travel - a good thing since he was often on the road for work for more than six months of the year.

In one of many distinctions during his career in investment management, Cundill was honored in 2001 at the Canadian Investment Award with the Analyst's Choice Career Achievement Award in recognition of his performance and lifetime contribution to the financial community.

In 2006, he learned he suffered from an untreatable neurological condition and sold the firm that carried his name to Mackenzie Financial, with whom he's had a strategic alliance since 1998; he became chairman emeritus of Mackenzie Cundill in 2009.

Cundill is survived by his stepdauther, Evelyn, two grandchildren, a stepson, Roger, and his brother, Grier. He was predeceased by his wife, Joanie.

Source: Susan Schwartz, The Gazette.

Obituaries

There are people out there that are out of this world. Sorry for the bad word game but I cannot find another world to say it.

Those people lived their life. They did not only exist: wake up, subway, work, and repeat. They contributed to their respective field of work. They left their mark. But this is not all. Those people were multidimensional people. What I mean by multidimensional is that they were not only good in their field. But they were also undertaking other endeavors like climbing mountains, running marathons, expert in triathlon or protectors of arts or even part time scientist. Or they decided to write a book or make a movie... They are what I call the Da Vinci of our era. Citizens of the world.

And I find their lives inspiring and full of tips on different strategies on how to live your life.

Therefore I will introduce another post kind: The Obituaries. In which I will report the achievement of people that are recently deceased to which I found their lives inspiring.