Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Probabilistic System

Don't underestimate the value of including probability and statistics in your life. You'll have an edge if you calculate your chances of winning while others rely only on their gut feeling. As simple example: A good method to increase the odds of winning while playind dice with your friend is to bet that you are going to throw the dices and get a sum of 7 points.

Why? Because 7 is the number that has the most probabilistic likelihood to appear. For the numbers 2 and 12, there is only one combinaison for each 1+1 and 6+6. For number 3 and 11, there is two possible combinaisons. For 4 or 10, there is three combinaisons. There is four combinaison possible for 5 or 9, six combinaisons for 6 or 8 and there is seven possible combinaisons to get 7. Then there is more chances in getting 7 than any other sum.

In life it is the same thing. Some are obvious choices like avoiding smoking decreases dramatically the likelihood of gettint Cancer. Avoiding fat increases your chances of ramining tin. Without making complicated calculations, we should be aware of those probability and make them work for us. If your are, then you get a better chance to make it better than the others that don't. Then you have an edge over others. Strategically speaking this is good.

Read this article. And get interested in statistics and probabilities. Know and calculate your odds on your undertakings. Now the idea is not to become an over calculating crackpot.

If you don't know where to start, start here.

Knowing where your interests are is certainly a good thing.

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