Mubarak's move on probing the situation

Yesterday I heard on the news that Mubarak was opening a channel for discussion. While most people saw this as a weakening in Mubarak's lines, I had my reserves. I see it as a tactic to gauge the population. And the answer is: its the population that is weakening.

Allow me to explain. The people came down the street and said:"Mubarak out! Period!" And they were clear about the fact that they wouldn't leave the street before the guy was gone. And now, chapter two, people are saying "Mubarak wants to negotiate. Lets hear what he has to offer" See? Who's weakening?

People are down the street for what? A little less than a month. They are hungry, they are tired, thy are penniless and jobless. They are scared and Mubarak does not budge an inch. Psychologically speaking that is enough to weaken their moral. So that is why their will moved from "Mubarak out!" to "Mubarak? What do you offer?"

Now in Mubarak's perspective. Knowing that the population is weakening, he should offer nothing. Because he knows that the revolt is waning. The international press is getting tired of the story and are starting to look away for better scoop. So it is a question of time before he wins. Time is his best friend. So what should be a good move now? You open discussion with the people. This brings you two things.

One: you can gauge the weakness of the people by the weaken demands they make.

Two: it buys you time.

So what is the tactic during the negotiations? Divide and conquer. He probably will make false moves, making the people think that he is willing to concede, but he will not. And the reason to do so is to create hope in the heart of people. If you create hope and it fails, people will think that at least he was listening and that the people won a moral battle. But if he comes to the table not giving an inch, he might just piss people enough for them to remain in the streets longer. So his interest in to appear open and willing.

As an added bonus, if and when the negotiations fails, Mubarak will be able to complain to its people:"See! I tried to talk! I really did! But your representatives are making demands that are just unacceptable. They do not representing you well my people!"

As I read in the news paper yesterday:

"Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who may have won concessions yesterday allowing him to serve the rest of him mandate, did so with the same tactics that kept him in office since 1981: divide and conquer the opposition.

The regime is really good at what it does, said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Centre. Its very good at dividing the opposition. That's its skill and we've been seeing it for 30 years."

Source: Vivian Salama & Glen Carey, Bloomberg News.