Friday, February 25, 2011

My training this week

What a week. Barely had time to post.

On Monday it was cardio day. I didn't feel like it so I did my weights training.

On Tuesday I did the cardio training. Here it was:

3.3 miles (5.31 Km); 458 calories burned. But something happened at minute 21. My body went in total fallure. I had to stop and rest for 3 minutes before being ok to start again. I don't know what happened really except that it was my first cardio training of the week and that after 4 days rest, it might have been a little to hard on the body. I should go easier on the first cardio training of the week and then increase.

Here it was minute by minute:

Min 1: 6.0 mph
Min 2: 6.3 mph
Min 3: 6.5 mph
Min 4: 6.7 mph
Min 5: 7.0 mph
Min 6: 7.0 mph
Min 7: 6.7 mph
Min 8: 6.5 mph
Min 9: 6.3 mph
Min 10: 6.3 mph
Min 11: 6.5 mph
Min 12: 6.7 mph
Min 13: 7.0 mph
Min 14: 7.0 mph
Min 15: 6.7 mph
Min 16: 6.5 mph
Min 17: 6.3 mph
Min 18: 6.3 mph
Min 19: 6.5 mph
Min 20: 6.5 mph
Min 21: fallure
Min 22: fallure
Min 23: fallure
Min 24: 6.0 mph
Min 25: 6.3 mph
Min 26: 6.0 mph
Min 27: 6.0 mph
Min 28: 6.0 mph
Min 29: 6.0 mph
Min 30: 6.0 mph

50 sec. cool down at 5.0; 30 sec. cool down at 3.0

On Wednesday I did my weights training on lunch time. And since I had to stay downtown at night, I went back after work and did 20 minutes cardio at 6.3 mph all the way. For a total of 2.2 miles (3.54 Km) and 314 calories burned.

On Thursday I started to feel sick: soar throat, tired, flu. So I didn't train.

Today Friday I am sick. So I didn't train. I get some rest and drink a lot of liquid.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Leonardo De Vinci Code of Survival & Success

I watched a documentary on Leonardo De Vinci and I became aware that, embedded the documentary there was maxims of De Vinci's code of life. I decided to re listen the documentary and strip the maxims out of it.

Here is Leonardo De Vinci code of Survival & Success:

  1. Push beyond all expectations and obstacles
  2. If circumstances holds you back, always find another way to achieve your goal.
  3. Learn everything you can and excel beyond expectations.
  4. Never be limited by what has been done before or by what others might think.
  5. Always tackle new ideas.
  6. Obstacles cannot crush me. Every obstacles must heal to stern resolve. He who's look is fixed on a distant star will not falter.
  7. It had long since come to my attention that people of accomplishment rarely sits back and let things happen to them. They go out and make things happen.
  8. I am inspired by the urgency off doing. Knowing is not enough. We must act on it. Be willing is not enough. We must do.

Links of the week

Leonardo De Vinci
This is a very good documentary on the master. Very informative and full of insights on how to live your life.

This is co-titled "the movie THEY do not want you to see." I always find it funny. I always wonder who are "they"? Never the less a good movie on how banks were running and how wealth is built.

Have you ever wondered what would happen if our world as we know it would fall? Would we be back in medieval age? Diseases, war, famine? Well it did happen to the world once. Once upon a time the western world was ruled by a vast empire. The roman empire. It brought wealth, order and relative harmony in the world. This was a world where people were living in houses, were buying their food at the market. The water was coming into the house. There were opportunities for jobs. Does it sound familiar? Then when it collapsed. We stepped back in evolution. Simple example. Human race even forgot the recipe to make mortar! And had to wait until the Renaissance, something like 500 years later before re discovering it. Does it give you a hint on how far behind we stepped back?

Very good documentary.

In trading to be successful you have to be the opposite of erratic and random. You have to find a system that gives you an edge and stick to it. Here is a good example of a recipe to follow: wash rinse, repeat. Wash, rinse, repeat. Boring? May be. But that's the way to make consistent money.


A new blog at the magazine web site. A blog on strategy, military and politics.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

My training yesterday

I didn't feel for cardio yesterday so I did my weight training.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Life strategy - Get rich


More easy to say than to do. But there is clues about it that one must learn in order to do the right thing.

Ok first lets define what rich means. As per Capgemini firm, someone who's rich is someone who has $1 million or more and that include the house. I don't like this definition. I know people with $500K to $750K houses but they always argue to determine who's turn it is to buy the milk to go in the coffee. I don't consider that rich.

According to their definition, there is 0.5% 0f the world population that are rich. 41% of them live in United-States, 10% in Japan and 3% in China.

So it means that if you want to increase the odds of becoming rich, you have to immigrate to the United-States if you re not already a citizen there?

There is other ways, thanks to the Internet. You can live where ever you are if you are happy there, and settle a business, Internet based or not, that will sell to the american. You can even settle a business on America soil. Just get informed about it and the procedures.

Ok what else? How did those people become rich? According to the study again, most through their own efforts. Only 16% of high-net-worth inherited their money. So this means get your butt out there and like Nike says: Just do it!

Now, a little more specific on how they became rich. The most common way to get rich is to start a business. 47% of the world's wealthy people are entrepreneurs. Now this is interesting if you dream of becoming rich but are a cubicle rat for several years (no hard feeling please, I'm on the pack too). The idea is to break free from the cubicle prison and do it on your own. Nobody got rich by working for someone else. I mean think about it for a second. Reverse the roles: you own a business. You took all the risks in the beginning and put all the hours and efforts. Now that it's working and the money is raking in, do you want to give it to some employees or you want to enjoy the fruit of your labor?

However there is 23% that became rich by paid work. So if you want to put your eggs into the "climb the corporate ladder" way... be my guest. Just remember that your faith will always be in the hands of someone else, rather you like the idea or not.

So to recap, to get rich, stop zapping TV and go out there, start a company, do business in America or with Americans.

As long as you breathe, the game is on. And just as 50 cents has synthesized it: "get rich or die trying."

Oh! And by the way. My definition of rich goes like this: someone who has to answer to no one but himself, that has between 3 months to 6 months of secure money in the bank to ensure his life style if something goes bad, with no or minimal debt including house loan and has a net worth of $500K.

What's your definition?

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Strategical advantage - Know what's coming


I am not too fond of free advertising. But I must admit that this time I got a Wow! moment. I just read an article in the last version of The Economist. The article is titled Print me a Stradivarius. Its a must read if you want to know what's coming in the future in the world of manufacturing.

That's for manufacturing. But I always felt that, in general, I was ahead of things, ahead of news and discoveries when I am reading The Economist. This feeling has been confirmed to me a few years ago when one of my MBA teacher told the class the same thing: you want to know what's coming ahead of time... read The Economist.

This brings me to a generalization of strategy that, one must make sure that he/she is ahead of its time, knowing what is coming. And if not knowing for sure at least get a good feeling of it.

Read, get informed, talk to knowledgeable people on things that is of interests to you. Then you'll be able to foresee what's coming and prepare for it. You'll be ahead of the pack.

It's a very good feeling when people come to you to tell you all about this new thing that's come up and you knew all about it... for two years now.

I am going to do a little test. How in advance can I be when I read something in The Economist? I read the article about Three-dimensional manufacturing yesterday. Lets see how long it takes for that innovative information to get known and down on the street with Mr & Mrs common people.

And the clock is ticking... from... now!

Friday, February 18, 2011

Case Study - Louis

Louis stated that at the age of 40 he would be totally debt free and own his house. And debt free includes repaying the house loan totally.

At the age of 18 Louis did trow the kitchen table at the face of his father, for some profound disagreement they had on some topics. He then grabbed his bag and left home. With only the content of his bag as his whole possession, he headed west to find job. He did and worked hard.

Its during his hard working days that were repeating back to back it seamed without end that he came to the conclusion that he would not do that for the rest of his life. He taught that a degree in engineering would look god on a business card and decided to attend university. So he packed his bag once again and came back to his home town. But not at his parent's place. He rented an apartment with the money he saved while working and started school.

He received an electrical engineer degree a few years later and started to work for a engineering firm. After only six months in the firm he came to the conclusion that taking orders from someone else was not for him. So he quited his position and partnered with a friend to start a company. He would build houses.

In the beginning he had no practical idea on how to build a house. He had all the technical skills but not the hands on skills. So they got in an agreement with another friend of their that actually wanted to build a house for himself. The friend would buy the materials and Louis and his partner would build the house. Their first. Once this endeavor was conclusive, they settled to build more. They invested in land and started constructing houses. And they sold it. With the money they repaid the bank and invested in some more lands to build other houses... and so on.

Today Louis is in his 40s. He has no personal debts. Has a big house for himself that he payed cash a few years ago. His company runs fully and has no debt. Louis enjoys life. He answers to no one, starts in the morning when he arrives at his office. Stops went he wants. If he doesn't feel like working or feel a little tired in the afternoon, he fire the chess game on his computer and play. Louis travels to Europe and the Caribbeans about twice a year. And he takes his vacations just when ever he wants.

Louis does what he has to do to maintain the success of his business. But he doesn't fall into the "customer is king" madness. When he's late, he's late. He doesn't bow nor gives excuses. You want the house buy it. You don't then buzz off.

Once asked what he would do if the house business would wane he answered. "I will simply do something else. I know I will succeed in just what ever I may decide to do". When confronted with a challenge or fear, Louis meets it head on. He goes straight ahead without hesitation. That may be an ingredient of his success.

Louis is the perfect example of freedom. An inspiration on how I want to live my life.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

My training today

Today was my weight day. What I do basically is week one of this training. (Follow link).

I do (try to do) 10 reps of each. One set only. With 90 secs. break between the reps.

What I do is I use enough weight to make sure that my muscles will fail at around 8 or 9 reps. I use the Colorado Experiment technique. I invite you to read on it. What it does is to push your body to the max in a short period of time. Therefore you will generate micro tears in you muscles. And it is in the rebuilding of those mirco tears that the muscles grow. Its almost like it has a mind of itself and says "I've been teared on the last solicitation so I'll make sure to have enough strength the next time so I'll build myself stronger".

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Links of the week

How to make wealth

This is a difficult work to transpose Ayn Rand's philosophy in the book into a movie. One can crush his teeth very hard and very fast if such endeavor is not done well. I've seen the preview. And so far I am willing to upgrade my rating from "Mediocre" to "Entertaining".

This is a very good documentary. A good example of business know how, genius, ambitions and wit! Very inspiring.

My training yesterday

30 minutes treadmill; 470 calories burned; distance: 3.26 miles (5.25 Km)

Minute by minute:

Min 1: 3.5 mph; inclination of 15%
Min 2: 4.0 mph; inclination of 15%
Min 3: 6.3 mph; no inclination
Min 4: 6.3 mph
Min 5: 6.3 mph
Min 6: 6.3 mph
Min 7: 6.3 mph
Min 8: 6.5 mph
Min 9: 6.7 mph
Min 10: 7.0 mph
Min 11: 6.7 mph
Min 12: 6.5 mph
Min 13: 6.3 mph
Min 14: 6.3 mph
Min 15: 6.5 mph
Min 16: 6.7 mph
Min 17: 7.0 mph
Min 18: 6.7 mph
Min 19: 6.5 mph
Min 20: 6.3 mph
Min 21: 6.3 mph
Min 22: 6.5 mph
Min 23: 6.7 mph
Min 24: 7.0 mph
Min 25: 6.7 mph
Min 26: 6.5 mph
Min 27: 6.3 mph
Min 28: 6.3 mph
Min 29: 6.5 mph
Min 30: 6.5 mph.

50 sec. cool down at 5.0 mph and 30 sec. cool down at 3.0 mph.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Obituary - Daniel Bell

Daniel Bell, who died on January 25th, was on of the great sociologists of capitalism.

Asked what he specialised in, Daniel Bell replied:"generalisations". Mr Bell lived a varied life. He grew up in New York City, so poor that sometimes had to scavenge for food. Yet he ended his days in bourgeois comfort in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He spent 20 years as a journalist, mostly as Fortune's labor editor, before decamping to academia. His boss, Henry Luce, desperate to keep his star writer, asked him why he was leaving. He gave four reasons: June, July, August and September.

His taste for generalisations grew with the eating. He produced three of the great works of post-war sociology: "The End of Ideology" (1960), "The Coming of Post-Industrial Society" (1973) and "The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism" (1978). On the Times Literary Supplement's list of the 100 most influential books since the second world war, two were by Mr Bell.

Many of Mr Bell's insights remain as relevant today as when he first broached them. For example, the transition from industrial to consumer capitalism, which he chronicled in America decades ago, is now happening in China and India. Even when he was wrong, Mr Bell was wrong in thought-provoking ways. A few hours with his oeuvre is worth more than a week in Devos (and is less likely to cause skiing injuries).

"The End of Ideology" described the political landscape of the post-cold-war world 30 years before the cold war ended. Mr Bell argued that the great ideological struggles that had defined the first half of the 20th century were exhausted. The new politics, he said, would be about hardly boring administration, not the clash of ideals. His timing could hardly have been worse: the 1960s was one of the most ideologically charged decades in American history. Nonetheless, Mr Bell was right that the ideology of communism was doomed. In China it has given way to market Leninism. In Russia it has been replaced by kleptocracy.

Mr Bell spent the next decade and a bit working on a huge book, "The Coming of Post-Industrial Society", a term he coined and which caught on. Many of the book's insights-about the shift from manufacturing to services, the rise of knowledge workers and the waning of the class struggle-have now become so familiar that it is easy to forget how fresh they were in 1973. However, Mr Bell failed to spot one of the revolutions that was whirling around him: the transition from managerial capitalism that he witnessed at Fortune to a much more freewheeling entrepreneurial capitalism. Perhaps this was the price he paid for spurning Luce and moving to academia.

Many of his other insights still bite. He argued that the old fashioned class struggle was being replaced by other, equally vexatious conflicts: for example, between the principles of equality and meritocracy in higher education. He also anticipated the current debate about happiness by pointing out that material progress cannot eliminate the frustrations inherent in the zero-sum competition for power, prestige and the attention of the sexiest person in the room. The more people are free to rise on their own merits, the more they will race on the treadmill for status.

Mr Bell's best book was "The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism". In it he raised the possibility that the material abundance that capitalism produces might destroy the very virtues that had made capitalism possible in the first place. Capitalism, as Max Weber said, depends on the Puritan virtues of hard work, thrift and deferred gratification. But modern consumerism was stimulating the appetite for instant gratification and irrational self-expression, Mr Bell worried. The Protestant ethic was being destroyed by the shopping mall and the counter-culture.

This argument is not watertight. Despite Mr Bell's cultural contradictions and Karl Marx's economic contradictions, capitalism is still going strong. In "Bobos in Paradise" David Brooks, a New York Times columnist, argued that a cocktail of bourgeois virtues and bohemian values can prove economically invigorating. Some of the most successful companies in recent years have been founded by such un-Puritanical figures as Sir Richard Branson (Virgin), Steve Jobs (Apple) and Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield (Ben & Jerry's). High-tech companies such as Google have no difficulty in combining the profit motive with the ethos of a campus. But in one area Mr Bell was prescient: he worried that consumerism was encouraging people to borrow more money than they could reasonably hope to repay.

He was even more prescient about what might be called "the cultural contradictions of the welfare state". This was the subject of passionate debate in the pages of the Public Interest, a journal he co-founded in 1965 with another poor-boy-made-good, Irving Kristol. The welfare state cannot last unless someone creates the wealth to pay for it. But interest groups demand ever more from the state, and politicians jostle to promise more goodies. As the welfare state expands, it can eventually undermine people's willingness to take risks or look after themselves.

One of Mr Bell's most provocative insights ran throughout his work. This was the idea that, contrary to what economic determinists such as Marx said, different "realms" off society could operate according to different principles. (Always wary of the neo-conservative label that Kristol embraced with such enthusiasm, Mr Bell described himself as a "socialist in economics, a liberal in politics and a conservative in culture".) Capitalism might co-exist just as happily with Chinese authoritarianism as with American democracy, he reckoned. In this, one hopes that the great polymath was wring.

Source: The Economist

Saturday, February 12, 2011

My training update

If you remember the goals I've set, one of them is to have the body of a greek god.

Even if I have not talked about that yet I have not forgotten the subject. I train 5 days per week, alternating one day with weights and one day cardio. Yesterday was my cardio day. And I decided to record my progression. What a day! My best performance since I started. Here it is:

Time: 30 min. on the treadmill.
Calories burned: 472 cal.
Distance: 3.29 miles (5.29 Km)

Minute by minute:

Min. 1: 4 mph; Inclination: 15%;
Min 2: 6.3 mph; no inclination
Min 3: 6.3 mph
Min 4: 6.3 mph
Min 5: 6.3 mph
Min 6: 6.3 mph
Min 7: 6.3 mph
Min 8: 6.3 mph
Min 9: 6.3 mph
Min 10: 6.3 mph
Min 11: 6.5 mph
Min 12: 6.7 mph
Min 13: 7.0 mph
Min 14: 6.7 mph
Min 15: 6.5 mph
Min 16: 6.3 mph
Min 17: 6.0 mph
Min 18: 6.3 mph
Min 19: 6.5 mph
Min 20: 6.7 mph
Min 21: 7.0 mph
Min 22: 6.7 mph
Min 23: 6.5 mph
Min 24: 6.3 mph
Min 25: 6.3 mph
Min 26: 6.5 mph
Min 27: 6.7 mph
Min 28: 7.0 mph
Min 29: 6.7 mph
Min 30: 6.5 mph

80 sec. cool down.

That's it.

Moubarak - The End

Well, well! After 18 days of hanging on. Beware what the people want!

That's the take away from this episode of history. You can rule. You can accumulate wealth by looting, corruption, extortion. But sooner or later you will get on to the people's nerves. And when that day comes, there is nothing you can do to avoid social justice. Unless of course if you accumulate 30$ to 60$ billions in wealth. Then you can take you money and run.

What happened in the last days of Moubarak I don't know. And since I don't have a direct line with the president of the United-States just yet, I can't ask him what happened. I can only speculate. I guess that in the last days, the phone has been busy between Moubarak's administration, the White House and Europe. I guess Moubarak wanted to make sure that if he was to flee away, his assets wouldn't be seized nor frozen like his partner the ex ruler of Tunisia. He might even have been offered a safe place to... retire in peace and security.

That's the least America, Europe and even Israel can do to accommodate a long time ally, in gratitude for keeping peace in the area for 30 years.

At the end of the day, the big winners yesterday are the people of Egypt. I am very happy for them and I really wish for them that they will make the good choices to prevail justice, democracy and freedom. They earned it!

Three Hahoo for the people of Egypt that showed to the world how to stand with courage, determination and relative peace and harmony in their protestations!

Egypt! Hahoo!
Egypt! Hahoo!
EGYPT! HAHOO! HAHOO! HAHOO!

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Sykes Method - Update

I liquidated my last holdings. I made 30$ with HILL and I sold at par for the tow others. They seams to go nowhere.

Tomorrow I will focus on some other stocks: wash, rince, repeat.

Moubarak out? Just not yet.


Yesterday Mubarak went with another twist in his strategy. He announced that he will raise all salaries for the government workers. How convenient! This is a clever move. After making sure of holding the power, the police, the army, the press. Now its the turn of the government itself. Because you can hold what ever government if no government officials follow you, you won't go far.

Then, knowing that he hold tight his government, his government officials, the police and the army, after inviting the opposition for empty negotiations he went on with a threath: if people don't go home he will have to use the army to what ever extent that the situation may require. Why didn't he use the army before? Because he had to secure his government, make sure that the police and the army was behind him. Then he had to organize mock negotiations so he can use the failed talks to justify further use of violence.

And then what happened today? Coup de theatre! He said he was transferring part of his power to the vice-president. When everybody believed that he would address the nation and step down... no no no he remains!

I am not quite sure I understand his latest move. One thing for sure he must hold the vice president tight some how. Lets see...

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Sykes Method - My picks today


My picks today:

HILL

Going up, strong volume but no particular news to justify the buzz. I'll keep an eye on this one.

SCKT
Now look at this one. Isn't it beautiful? Trend is down then... Spark way up, strong volume. This is the perfect candidate for a short once the volume wane. Definitively a keeper.

EWD.V
This stock was going no where. Then it dived down and hoop! way up. There is news that they discovered something. Is is true? Who cares! Lets keep an eye on the volume. As soon as it disappear: short!

Mubarak's move on probing the situation

Yesterday I heard on the news that Mubarak was opening a channel for discussion. While most people saw this as a weakening in Mubarak's lines, I had my reserves. I see it as a tactic to gauge the population. And the answer is: its the population that is weakening.

Allow me to explain. The people came down the street and said:"Mubarak out! Period!" And they were clear about the fact that they wouldn't leave the street before the guy was gone. And now, chapter two, people are saying "Mubarak wants to negotiate. Lets hear what he has to offer" See? Who's weakening?

People are down the street for what? A little less than a month. They are hungry, they are tired, thy are penniless and jobless. They are scared and Mubarak does not budge an inch. Psychologically speaking that is enough to weaken their moral. So that is why their will moved from "Mubarak out!" to "Mubarak? What do you offer?"

Now in Mubarak's perspective. Knowing that the population is weakening, he should offer nothing. Because he knows that the revolt is waning. The international press is getting tired of the story and are starting to look away for better scoop. So it is a question of time before he wins. Time is his best friend. So what should be a good move now? You open discussion with the people. This brings you two things.

One: you can gauge the weakness of the people by the weaken demands they make.
Two: it buys you time.

So what is the tactic during the negotiations? Divide and conquer. He probably will make false moves, making the people think that he is willing to concede, but he will not. And the reason to do so is to create hope in the heart of people. If you create hope and it fails, people will think that at least he was listening and that the people won a moral battle. But if he comes to the table not giving an inch, he might just piss people enough for them to remain in the streets longer. So his interest in to appear open and willing.

As an added bonus, if and when the negotiations fails, Mubarak will be able to complain to its people:"See! I tried to talk! I really did! But your representatives are making demands that are just unacceptable. They do not representing you well my people!"

As I read in the news paper yesterday:

"Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who may have won concessions yesterday allowing him to serve the rest of him mandate, did so with the same tactics that kept him in office since 1981: divide and conquer the opposition.

The regime is really good at what it does, said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Centre. Its very good at dividing the opposition. That's its skill and we've been seeing it for 30 years."

Source: Vivian Salama & Glen Carey, Bloomberg News.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Case Study - Carlo Pedersoli


I know, I know. You must think who the hell is Carlo Pedersoli?

Do you remember the big guy with a beard in the fights movies, always partnering with Terence Hill? What was his name again? Ah yes: Bud Spencer.

Well Carlo Pedersoli is Bud Spencer.

Still don't remember him? Well then watch this clip.

So what? That's what I thought too. I thought that this guy came, made a few fights movies in the 80s and they faded away. Well how far from the truth was I? As an example of how to live your life, Bud Spencer is far from just a B movie figure.

Did you know that this guy was an Olympic swimmer? He participated to the 1952 Helsinki Olympic games and the 1956 Melbourne Olympic games.

He is the first Italian to swim the 100m crawl under 1 minutes. Performance that he achieved in 1950 at the Pan Mediterranean games.

After his swimming career was over he went on: actor, playing in about 26 movies, film director, business owner, he can fly planes and helicopters, he god a degree in law and registered several patent.

How about that!

He established his company Mistral Air in 1989 that he sold latter to buy a mill factory.

And as a cherry on top of the sundae, he entered politics in 2005.

What a man! This is the kind of shining star that inspires me. How about you?

The morale of this little story is this. Re invent yourself my friend. You are more than what you think you are. Just never stop dreaming and get them to reality. Nobody will for you.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Links of the week


Despite the fact that his method is interesting, I love his way of thinking: Be free, live and work from anywhere in the world, be independent from routine (or a day job), don't answer to anybody...or die trying!

Tim Sykes Method - Update

I shorted Zane at 1.55$ per share. I covered my position at 1.36$. This makes 114$ profit (I bought 600 shares).

I shorted BLDP at 2.09 per share. I still hold the position. lets see were it leads.

So far so good with this system. The main problem is that I cannot watch the market movement to the tick. I work a day job and have to check the good news, or the mess, at the end of the day. One the other side this may be good. Because while I don't watch the market to the tick, I don't get emotional therefore I don't sell when its not the time to. The flip side is also true. The day that I will need to sell on the spot, I won't be there to react. This will reality will need to be addressed in my system.


Friday, February 4, 2011

Moubarak move - Machiavelli would have approved

Well my friends, I don't know for you but each time I turn on my TV set at night to watch the news in Egypt I get a new lesson in strategy.

What started it all in Egypt? The people saw what the population did in Tunisia and they said to themselves:"Now wait! If they can do it, we can do it too!" And the turmoil began. At first it was genuine people tired and frustrated against the regime. They were manifesting in peace. But they wanted to pass their point across.

What did Moubarak do? He addressed the nation. Stating that he was dissolving the government and that there were to be elections to better address the people's demands. It didn't work. The people remained in the street.

So next thing he deployed the army in order to "secure the streets and protect the population" of course. It didn't do.

He dissolved the government. So now he control the three main democratic powers: executive, legislature and the judiciary. We all know that to ensure a democracy, you have to separate the powers. OK what's next? Ah yes! The press. The press is known to be the "fourth power" with its power to influence. So previously this week, he cut the Al Jazeera feed in Egypt. Al Jazeera is the muslim version of CNN.

Ok lets see on the cross list:

legislature: checked

executive: checked

judiciary: checked

the press: partial check. We need to address the international press in order to suppress the international opinion.

army: still in control.

Ok lets look in the streets: what? They're still there?!

Now comes the cherry on the sundae. The master peace that Machiavelli would have been excited about. Lets organize a counter insurrection party. Those people will get down in the streets. And they are precisely instructed to get violent and attack both insurrectionists and the international press. And they should shout slogans in favor of Moubarak. Now such a party shouldn't be difficult to put together. In a country which has its economy at a total halt, giving a "salary" to the counter insurrectionists will be appealing to some people.

And look at what is happening from the last two days. Violence. Insurrectionists getting attacked, and international press fleeing home because they are afraid for their security. This last move may just be the kind of move that will ensure Moubarak to prevail.

I am not endorsing Moubaraks moves. I sincerely wish more democracy, peace and jobs to the Egyptian people. Since I run a strategic blog, I had to point out the strategic moves that are right before our eyes. Here and now. Live.

Tim Sykes Method - Update on my picks

Well lets see what is happening with my picks. I chose: SCON, ZANE and BLDP.

Lets start with SCON:

It played up around 3.40$ yesterday then retraced and closed at 3.12$ This is a potential short. I'll keep an eye on it today. Its shy but I think it has the potential to go down. The volume is still too high. It support the price. When it will be fading, it will be shorting time.

ZANE:
Now look at this! Dropped like a poh! I didn't even have time to get into the party. I missed the fun. Oh well, there will be another party coming soon. Don't worry.

BLDP:
Now look at this one. Just perfect! It started its retrace, the volume is fading. Looks like a short to me. I'll short this one at the opening of the market.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Tim Sykes Method - My picks

Ok lets get to business.

As one of my three main objectives at the beginning of the year I told that I want to make money. To do so I started to use two methods. Tim Sykes Method for pennystocking, and Turtle method for Forex. Lets focus on pennystocking for now.

On January 25th I picked two stocks using Sykes method. I picked NVGN and RNN. I shorted 500 shares of each. NVGN at 1.44$ and RNN at 1.52$. Yesterday February 2th, I covered both my positions on them. NVGN at 1.01$ and RNN at 1.45$. This makes me a profit (before trading fees) of 215$ for NVGN and 35$ for RNN, for a grand total of 250$ profit.

Here are the stocks on my watch list now:

SCON

ZANE


BLDP

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Borrowed power vs True power



Borrowed power or true power? Look at the actual case of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt. Those people believed, I guess, that they were there for ever. If you asked Kadafi of Lybia a few weeks ago, I would suspect that he would have been confident to stay in place. Try to probe him now. I'm sure that his convictions are a little more shaky. Even if his country remains in relative peace and harmony... so far.

I've been having this thought for a while now. And my introspection on the subject is not finished. What do Ben Ali, Mubarak and Kadafi have in common? They all stand (or standed) on borrowed power. As long as the people tolerate them, everything goes smoothly in the world. But don't be too exuberant. You better walk with your bottom cheeks tight. Because you never know when the people will have enough.

So what is true power then? It is not Kim Jong-Il. It is not Fidel Castro. Those are the same as the others. They are just pressing the people's balls a little harder. So what is it? What is true power? I think it's money. Look at the big shots in this world. I mean the real ones. The major league ones. Most of them you don't hear much about. But do you think that, because you don't hear about them, that they are not active? Far from it. They are just keeping it low profile. They get people elected. They get bills passed. They endure and prosper. For generations. And when there's a head to roll, its not theirs.

Its the same thing in enterprises and politics. Look at the CEOs. Look at presidents, senators and governors. Are they that powerful? Their heads can roll in a matter of minutes. And it did. They are just as good as the next election or the next profit report. Or until people get tired of them. But the major shareholders, the others playing behind the curtain or the people ... they remain.

So my take away from it all is don't mistake true power from borrowed power. You still want the CEO's job? Fine. But make sure that you do it for the right reasons: money, contacts, prestige. But not power. If you do, you're running after a shadow. Even popularity and prestige are false gods. It takes time to get and it can be removed from you before you know it. And you're left with nothing. Worst! People look at you as they look at their drop before flushing.

Once again look at the very rich. Ok they have the prestige of their wealth. But are they actively after popularity and prestige? No. They are after true power. And it seams that keeping a low profile about it is a good strategy.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Obituary - Peter Cundill

Investment manager helped shape industry.

The celebrated investor Peter Cundill has died, but his influence will continue to be felt in his contributions to financial world, to philanthropy and to the broader community.

He died in London where he lived for the past two decades, on Jan. 24. He was 72. There's always something to Do: The Peter Cundill Investment Approach (McGill Queen's Univesity Press), completed not long before his death, is set to be released on Feb. 26.

The Cundill International Prize in History, established by his foundation in 2008 at his alma mater; McGill University , remains the world's largest non-fiction historical literature prize. The 2010 winner was noted British historian and Oxford University professor Diarmaid MacCuloch, for A History of Christianity:The First Three Thousand Years. The prize was intended to encourage the writing of history for a general audience and, in explaining his affinity to history Cundill once said:"I'm an investment researcher of finance, and I think there's an analogy between the two disciplines - both study the past to understand the present and predict the future." As well, the Cundill Foundation will continue to support "a wide range of charities and educational and enterprise gifts to young people," according to a memorial notice that appeared in The Gazette and other publications.

Cundill was a graduate of Lower Canada College, where he played football and basketball. He earned a Bachelor of Commerce from McGill in 1960, became a chartered accountant and then went into the investment business; he worked in Montreal and Vancouver; where in the early 1970s he was president of AGF Vancouver Investment Management Ltd. and established his flagship fund, the Cundill Value Fund, in 1974 and his own firm three years later.

In his investment philosophy, Cundill was known as an advocate of American economist and investor Benjamin Graham's value approach, which generally involves buying securities whose shares appear undervalued. Proponents of value investing includes Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett; indeed, in 2007 Buffett observed that Cundill had the kind of credentials he was looking for in his search for his company's next chief investment officer.

In a column about Cundill's death, a personal finance columnist at the Toronto Star called him "a renowned value investor and mutual fund manager who helped shake the Canadian money management industry."

Roseman, who interviewed him in 1988 and again in 2003, described him as "lean and bald, with piercing blue eyes."

Cundill who liked to challenge himself physically, was a runner who completed 22 marathons. He was a voracious reader and he loved to travel - a good thing since he was often on the road for work for more than six months of the year.

In one of many distinctions during his career in investment management, Cundill was honored in 2001 at the Canadian Investment Award with the Analyst's Choice Career Achievement Award in recognition of his performance and lifetime contribution to the financial community.

In 2006, he learned he suffered from an untreatable neurological condition and sold the firm that carried his name to Mackenzie Financial, with whom he's had a strategic alliance since 1998; he became chairman emeritus of Mackenzie Cundill in 2009.

Cundill is survived by his stepdauther, Evelyn, two grandchildren, a stepson, Roger, and his brother, Grier. He was predeceased by his wife, Joanie.

Source: Susan Schwartz, The Gazette.

Obituaries

There are people out there that are out of this world. Sorry for the bad word game but I cannot find another world to say it.

Those people lived their life. They did not only exist: wake up, subway, work, and repeat. They contributed to their respective field of work. They left their mark. But this is not all. Those people were multidimensional people. What I mean by multidimensional is that they were not only good in their field. But they were also undertaking other endeavors like climbing mountains, running marathons, expert in triathlon or protectors of arts or even part time scientist. Or they decided to write a book or make a movie... They are what I call the Da Vinci of our era. Citizens of the world.

And I find their lives inspiring and full of tips on different strategies on how to live your life.

Therefore I will introduce another post kind: The Obituaries. In which I will report the achievement of people that are recently deceased to which I found their lives inspiring.